National Association of Home Builders chief economist David Seiders has slashed his forecast for the housing market further to 1.42 million for 2007 and 1.45 million for 2008. Seiders says the home building recession will end in the later part of the fourth quarter of 2007 or in early 2008, but he does not think total housing starts will get back to the 1.95 million unit-level until 2010 or 2011.
He projects single-family starts to level off at 1.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2007 and build back to 1.5 million units in 2010 or 2011.
Seiders says he doesn’t think the Fed will cut its target rate in 2007 or 2008, or that there will be a surge in job growth. A typical housing recession is overcome by one of these two factors. Neither is present today nor on the horizon, Seiders says.